Seven years ago, a mere eight words to energize a Labour conference demonstrating the party was becoming disillusioned with Jeremy Corbyn. Although not precisely soaring oratory, the phrase met with rapturous applause as most of the hall stood for an impromptu ovation.
As the commotion died down, Keir Starmer, stood at the podium, blinking in surprise. He wasn't really accustomed to his speeches producing such a reaction. All he had said was: "We are not excluding remain as an option". Context, however, is key.
In that darkly divisive time in 2018, straying from his agreed text like this was inevitably viewed as issuing a challenge to the party leader, who sought to prioritize Brexit voters in key constituencies above the Europhile sentiments of his party. In just one speech, this seemingly cautious shadow Brexit secretary underwent a transformation – albeit temporarily – into a risk-taker who championed most Labour MPs, members and voters against the leadership he would later replace.
The Evolution of Stance and Closed Debates
Since then, much has happened, especially for Starmer himself. An early move upon assuming leadership in 2020 was to declare the Brexit issue was resolved by the 2019 national vote. And, at the last one, he repeatedly emphasised unbreakable pledge commitments that ruled out rejoining the EU, the single market or a customs union.
Similar to Corbyn, his strategy has focused on winning Brexit-y voters in target constituencies, despite survey data suggests many of them have died or changed their minds.
A Lid That Rattles on Europe
Yet, it’s now the prime minister’s turn to face the pressures of being a party leader. And, if EU relations is no longer the boiling pot of British politics, the cap which was firmly shut since Brexit is starting to loosen again.
Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have ramped up the rhetoric regarding the damage caused by Brexit has inflicted on the UK’s economy. This serves as an effective tool to criticize Nigel Farage, who now rarely mentions his flagship policy was his primary goal and remains his only real achievement.
And yet, the extent of the economic harm, which by some estimates has left Britain with an economy that is between 6% and 8% smaller than if it were still in the EU, dwarfs the micro-mitigation thus far implemented by ministers. Starmer’s so-called relationship reset agreed with Brussels in 2024 provides gains quantified in fractions of a percent.
Internal Pressure and Ambitious Proposals
Rachel Reeves is one of those attempting to bypass long-standing Home Office resistance to an expansive version of a growth-enabling program for young people allowing youths can travel between the UK and the EU for work or study.
David Lammy muses openly regarding the “self-evident” benefits of being in an EU customs pact, as several Labour backbenchers, including the chair of the Treasury select committee, recently voted for an opposition proposal on joining one.
Although the Europe minister, who oversees EU policy, who is now attending every cabinet meeting, insists the red lines remain unchanged, there are ways these could be bypassed. One idea would be to announce the start of talks immediately for a more ambitious agreement, to be featured in the next manifesto, to be enacted only after Labour won a new electoral mandate.
Starmer's Fundamental Doubts
However, Starmer has lately been pouring cold water again by warning rejoining an EU customs arrangement could undermine the commercial agreements with America, which he views as signature achievements of his premiership.
Reportedly that Starmer's doubts run even deeper, and is rooted in several key concerns.
- First, he thinks a customs pact has been made much harder because his ministers actively diverging from European rules across a range of policy areas, like environmental standards.
- Second, the exorbitant price set for the UK for entry into a European defense initiative and the ensuing failure in talks has led UK negotiators that former EU partners are less interested in offering favorable terms with Britain and are more focused on demonstrating that Brexit does not work.
- Lastly, America's latest security doctrine, praised by Moscow, is seen by some influential figures in Number 10 as grounds for Britain to maintain distance from Europe.
An Alarming Document & Strategic Considerations
This strange and concerning American strategy paper asserts Europe is threatened by “civilizational erasure” due to Muslim migration. It includes a single mention to Britain, found on a proposal that Donald Trump’s administration may interfere in British politics to foster the growth of “patriotic” parties.
But, far from concluding that this makes America an unreliable partner, ministers reportedly fear that deeper EU integration could upset the global balance by risking precarious American backing for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.
Succession Chatter & The Echo of 2018
This situation brings us back to 2018. The PM has consistently stated his speech was not a pitch to become leader but simply an effort to preserve the possibility of remain being on the ballot paper. In fact, back then, Starmer still favoured a “bespoke customs union deal” of the kind he currently seems to reject.
But it’s not been lost on the Prime Minister's office note that the Health Secretary, widely considered would be a candidate in any leadership election, is among a clutch of senior ministers letting it be known they desire greater ambition regarding the EU.
Staff for the Deputy Prime Minister, another probable runner in a future race for the top job, maintain she won’t discuss her stance regarding a customs pact because it would only “fuel unnecessary gossip”.
The Clear Risk & A Prudent Memory
The danger is obvious. If Starmer rules out more meaningful steps towards EU alignment, he allows rivals to claim the territory where most of Labour MPs, members and voters reside.
It would be wise of him to recall the effect that a short phrase had for him in 2018. Potential pathways for a major proposal on EU relations which the PM ought to consider; he should explore them himself, rather than letting rivals adopt them as their own.
