It was eight weeks prior that the Villa attacker stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed as the Villa manager scolded him over missing a through-ball. Back then, with the team went six without a win, doubts remained if his performances were a sign or a cause of Villa's more general malaise.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
This weekend, in contrast, the manager's outburst proved to be far more favourable. After the England international swept in his brace-sealing goal to reclaim his side's advantage, Emery tore off his winter coat, spread his arms and bellowed. The team were on their way to ten wins in a row , having failed to win any of their first six fixtures, find themselves a mere three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Legitimate Challengers?
This is a particularly tough question to answer. Past precedent, the traditional standing of Villa, argues against it. Moreover, they've rarely been wholly dominant this season, despite the fact the wins have piled up.
As per statistical analysis, on just two occasions has the side posted an expected goals figure notably superior than the opposition. For a side that have put together 10 in a row, Villa look curiously susceptible – however currently the tight outcomes are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach seems to be to exchange chances with an opponent before hoping their talisman to rescue them with two clinical strikes. This occurred at Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and it happened against Manchester United.
The initial strike came from a superb shot, bent right inside the upright from a wide position. His brace-completing goal proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of the opener as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Is It Sustainable?
Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, Manchester United had more shots and more efforts on goal. Villa have secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those games.
Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge they will encounter as the season progresses. Their key man, almost certainly, cannot maintain drilling his shots into the net's top corner forever.
A Case for Belief
Could it be a different scenario in which, rather than luck running out, the level of play rises to match the results. Important figures may yet find their top level.
- The centre-forward might resume adding to his goal tally.
- The attacking talent may rediscover the performer he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to return from injury, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable defence.
Perhaps there is in that the potential of a genuine bid, but they surely can continue to depend solely on a single individual.
Savoring the Moment
However, this is a surprise. Few believed Aston Villa would be in a Champions League place in December. And without a doubt back in October, no one envisioned the young forward as the year closed would be leading a hunt for the title while looking like an essential Three Lions star.
The current run is to be savoured for the very reason that it appears so improbable. As Rogers positioned himself before the North End when the game ended conducting the cheers, he seemed to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods do not happen often and should be relished.
